An avocado plantation in Andalusia in Spain

Avocado plantations in Andalusia are dependent on intensive irrigation. | Photo: Alamy Stock Photo

The avocado boom in southern Spain is one of the reasons for the region’s extreme water crisis of recent years. The catalyst was an extended period of very low rainfall, from 2019 to 2024. But a study led by Victoria Junquera of the University of Bern has now shown that the crisis was not solely due to the weather. A decisive factor is a long-term imbalance between water supply and demand – a structural problem that is a result of poor management.

“Measuring groundwater use isn’t mandatory”.Victoria Junquera

For almost 25 years now, it’s been mandatory across Spain for every region to have a water management plan. But the data needed for proper planning is simply absent in many places. Groundwater levels have not been recorded systematically, and extraction licences are rarely based on the actual amount of water available. “What’s more, measuring groundwater use isn’t mandatory”, says Junquera. So the authorities are reliant on estimates. “It took us many hours combing through Excel spreadsheets and water management plans for us to realise just how great the uncertainties are in the available data”.

But there’s one more thing that’s lacking, besides water and greater efficiency in its use: A better overview of the problem. Who actually needs groundwater, where do they need it, and how much? And just how large are the available reserves? These knowledge gaps make sustainable management impossible. But the future risk of severe drought could be reduced significantly by introducing clear upper limits for irrigated areas, issuing fewer extraction licences, and instituting more effective controls overall.

V. Junquera et al.: Severe water crisis in southern Spain under expanding irrigated agriculture: A multidimensional drought analysis. PNAS (2025)