A cyclone is brewing in the low-pressure area ‘Ulrike’ over the Azores, here in 2018. | Photo: Nasa

In recent years, violent winter storms have caused enormous damage across western and central Europe. A team from the Universities of Bern and Lausanne has now analysed the stratospheric events that preceded them. “If we can understand better how large-scale drivers affect storms, we can prepare for them in good time”, says the climate scientist Hilla Afargan-Gerstman. Storms were particularly devastating when preceded by extremely weak or strong westerly wind vortices in the stratosphere above the polar region. These findings can help researchers to predict potential damage from winter storms up to a month in advance.

H. Afargan-Gerstman et al.: Winter stratospheric extreme events impact European storm damage. Communications Earth & Environment (2025)